Earlier this week, experts warned that airfares could increase in a matter of days amid a surge in global oil prices.
Now it’s really happening.
A growing number of airlines are adding fuel surcharges to tickets. Other airlines, faced with the prospect of more expensive jet fuel, are admitting to raising prices.
And new data released later this week showed that fares have risen sharply over the past seven days, whether you book a flight across the country or plan to fly to Europe.
Ultimately, it’s bad news for consumers hoping to book last-minute spring break trips or book flights for the upcoming summer season.
Higher rates begin to take hold
This increase in tariffs is part of a chain reaction: the conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent disruption of the world’s most critical oil transportation corridor that Iran has effectively closed. The result: a rise in oil prices around the world.
A week ago Friday, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby acknowledged the higher flight prices. “would probably start quickly.”
And they have done it.
New report shows sharp price increases since last week
In a report released Thursday, Deutsche Bank’s airfare tracker for bookings three weeks in advance found that ticket prices rose sharply from the previous week.
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Transatlantic, transcontinental and Caribbean flights recorded some of the biggest gains.
So did Spirit Airlines, although almost all airlines saw their fares increase.
And the impact goes far beyond the US.
“We are already starting to see airlines around the world reduce their flights in response to rising fuel costs,” wrote Michael Linenberg, an airline industry analyst at Deutsche Bank.
International carriers increase rates
In a statement to TPG on Thursday, Air Canada acknowledged that its prices “have been and continue to be adjusted” to reflect higher fuel costs.
Across the Atlantic, Air France-KLM (parent company of the French and Dutch flag carriers) said it would increase its fuel surcharges from 30 euros round trip, as announced earlier this month, to 50 euros (about $57) starting this week.
Meanwhile, Air New Zealand executives he told the country’s 1News network As a result, it planned to cut 1,100 flights in the coming weeks.
The Auckland-based airline closed about 4% of its scheduled flights on Friday, according to data from FlightAware.
What should consumers do?
TPG recommends travelers book summer fares as soon as possible, especially if they fly in June or July. We suggest locking in the airfare that you can change later if prices eventually drop, or booking with points.
Also, if you want to travel during the summer months, consider booking a trip for August, when travel demand (and fares) tend to be lower.
We have published additional travel tips here to face the increase in airline ticket prices.
Read more: Best times to book flights with the cheapest airfare in 2026
A new obstacle for consumers
How high will oil (and airfare) prices rise and how long will they last? Both are likely to depend on how long the turmoil in the Middle East lasts.
“There’s just not a lot of certainty about what’s going on,” Rob Handfield, a global supply chain expert at North Carolina State University, told me this week. “They don’t know how long this is going to last. It could go down in a week or it could go up even more.”
Airlines will surely be tested to see how much of the higher fuel costs they can ultimately pass on to customers; Deutsche Bank’s Linenberg predicted that full-service airlines (such as American, Delta and United) might have better luck building higher costs into fares than low-cost airlines that rely on a more price-sensitive consumer base.
“The wild card, in our view,” Linenberg wrote, “will be the shape of air travel demand in the coming months as the U.S. and global economies absorb significantly higher energy prices.”
That includes higher gas prices that hit consumers’ pockets. According to AAA, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline reached $3.67 on Saturday morning, up 25% from the previous month.
Reality check
Preliminary march results The University of Michigan consumer survey released Friday showed confidence fell nearly 1.9% since February. The reading on consumers’ economic outlook fell more than 4%.
Final results for March will be published in two weeks.
As for airports? Thursday was the busiest day for air travel in the United States since the final days of the New Year’s travel rush. And travelers faced another potential challenge: long security lines as the partial government shutdown continued.
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