It’s already been a big year in the world of travel, as the war in Iran and other global conflicts have forced the closure of airspace across the Middle East and sent jet fuel prices (and airline ticket prices) skyrocketing. There was also a brief outbreak of cartel violence in Mexico that disrupted the vacation plans of thousands of Americans. A partial government shutdown that dragged on for months and caused hours-long lines at some airport checkpoints didn’t help.
Despite all that, Americans’ passion for travel has not yet been severely affected, but there are signs that they may be changing.
According to a new survey from The Points Guy and YouGov, nearly a quarter of Americans (24%) have reconsidered their travel plans due to recent world events.
Here’s what our latest survey found.
Growing concern about international travel
While the latest YouGov survey commissioned by TPG showed no collapse in international travel planning, global conflicts and other issues are on Americans’ minds.
Twenty-four percent of Americans surveyed have reconsidered their upcoming travel plans to some extent (13%) or significantly (11%) due to recent global events. Meanwhile, another 24% said they had not reconsidered their upcoming travel plans.
We also asked U.S. travelers with upcoming travel plans if they had changed or canceled their travel plans due to recent international events. Eight percent of respondents said they had canceled a trip and another 8% said they had changed destinations. Fifteen percent said they postponed the trip.
Digging deeper, we asked if respondents avoided traveling to any international destinations due to geopolitical tensions or security concerns. Fifteen percent said they were avoiding some destinations and another 20% said they were avoiding international travel altogether. Still, 46% said it was not affecting where they were traveling.
Related: Fear of flying: New survey suggests 74% admit to at least some nerves
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Among U.S. travelers who avoid certain regions due to geopolitical or security concerns, we also asked which regions to which they hesitated to travel.
Unsurprisingly, 68% said they were reluctant to travel to the Middle East and 40% said the same about Central America.
Below, we asked those with upcoming travel plans what they would do if geopolitical tensions or security concerns continue to rise.
Fourteen percent said they would cancel travel altogether, 29 percent said they would choose destinations perceived as safer, 20 percent said they would delay travel plans, and 34 percent said they would travel domestically rather than internationally. Interestingly, 11% said they would continue traveling as planned. Some people are not afraid!
How Americans are reacting to higher prices when it comes to travel
Rising prices are also affecting travelers. Anecdotally, we’ve seen higher prices across the board at TPG for air tickets, and the data backs it up.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned that higher jet fuel prices would be passed on to consumers, and airlines have done just that. A Deutsche Bank survey found that prices for domestic flights in the United States had increased between 10% and 50%, depending on the route.
Our new survey found that rising airfare and gasoline prices were significantly impacting travel sentiment. 33 percent of U.S. travelers with upcoming plans said they were traveling less, while 25 percent said they were choosing cheaper or closer destinations. Another 25% said they were being more strategic when booking trips.
Still, 31% said rising prices were not influencing their travel decisions.
When we asked travelers with upcoming travel plans affected by rising airline ticket and gas prices how they planned to deal with price increases, we received a variety of responses.
Twenty-five percent planned to book using points or miles, 30% planned to book basic economy tickets, and 43% said they would travel to less expensive destinations.
Read more: TPG’s Guide to Getting Started with Points, Miles, and Credit Cards
We also asked Americans with upcoming travel plans if they were booking summer flights earlier than usual. (This is the advice we give to TPG readers: book now to get ahead of potential price increases and then get a travel credit if ticket prices drop before travel).
Almost a quarter (24%) of those with travel plans said they were booking earlier than usual.
For a full breakdown: 8% said they were booking much earlier than usual, 16% said they were booking a little earlier, 19% said they were booking at their normal pace, and 10% are throwing caution to the wind and actually waiting longer to book.
With prices rising rapidly, at the very least, readers should look Google Flights alerts and track the prices of all your flights for the remainder of the year to get an idea of trends. If you can afford it, I recommend booking all flights into the new year and then checking prices. If jet fuel continues to rise, I think rates could go much higher.
As long as you don’t book basic economy, you can get a travel credit for the price difference if we’re lucky and prices drop before travel. there is even new tools which will monitor the flights you have booked for you and automatically award you those travel credits.
In a nutshell
The new survey from YouGov and The Points Guy shows some fascinating data as global events continue to impact the travel space.
So far, the war in Iran, rising prices, cartel violence and the government shutdown have not seriously affected reserves, but a lot can change very quickly these days.
Fascinatingly, 66% of American travelers with upcoming travel plans have not changed their plans. About a third (34%) say they will travel domestically rather than internationally if geopolitical tensions or security concerns continue to rise. You can bet we’ll be keeping a close eye on that sentiment.
Related reading:
The Points Guy commissioned YouGov Plc to conduct the survey. All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. The total sample size was 2,477 US adults, among whom 1,145 are travelers with upcoming travel plans. The field work was carried out between March 16 and 17. The survey was conducted online and meets rigorous quality standards. It assembled a nonprobability sample and used quotas and demographic weights to better align the survey sample with the broader U.S. population.
