Summer plane tickets increase: TPG’s tips for finding the best deals

For weeks, travelers have seen headlines about rising oil and jet fuel costs, as well as Warnings about higher airfares..

The new numbers show how expensive it is becoming.

Domestic summer rates are currently trending nearly 15% higher than last year, according to data provided by our Points Path partners.

In dollars and cents, that means a trip that might have cost $300 last summer could cost closer to $345 in 2026.

The outlook isn’t much better for travelers looking to redeem miles this summer.

And the numbers only get worse when you take into account How US airlines have rushed to raise baggage fees last week and how a growing number of international operators have addressed fuel surcharges on tickets.

In all, it has made one thing clear: consumers will pay more to travel in the coming months.

“If people waited this long to book their summer trips, then it may already be too late to get cheap fares,” said Kerry Tan, an economics professor at Loyola University Maryland whose research focuses on airfares.

How expensive has airfare become?

Higher flight prices appear to be affecting travelers from the economy cabin to the front of the plane, including those hoping to redeem miles for their tickets.

Here’s how summer 2026 domestic rates compare to summer 2025:

Based on Points Path data evaluating the average price of cash and prizes nationwide from Memorial Day weekend through Labor Day.

International perspective

The sticker’s impact can be even worse for travelers flying internationally, depending on where they hope to go.

In the coming months, average fares to London will be 30% higher than a year ago, according to one search engine. data from the Kayak travel search engine.

And travelers are seeing flight prices rise by at least 20% to a handful of additional destinations in Europe, from Amsterdam to Dublin and Paris.

TPG Tip: Consider Lisbon, where rates are actually down slightly from last year, according to Kayak. The airlines have added a lot of flights to Portugal in recent years.

Extra Fees and Surcharges Make Things Worse

These rate increases don’t even take into account the increase in additional fees. Just in the last week, Delta Airlines, united airlines, Southwest Airlines and JetBlue have increased checked bag fees by 20% or more, and other airlines are likely to follow suit.

On Delta, United and Southwest, your first checked bag now costs $45 each way. That means a family of four taking a round trip would pay $360 in baggage fees alone (although a airline credit card with free baggage benefits could reduce your costs greatly).

When will price increases cool down?

Consumers trying to decide whether to book flights probably have a thousand questions: How high will fares go? How far should I book? Is it ridiculous to book Thanksgiving flights in April?

At this point, any prediction is not foolproof, as much depends on how long the war in the Middle East lasts, especially amid discussions about Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“No one knows where jet fuel prices will stabilize,” said a Deutsche Bank report released Tuesday.

That analysis found that another $1-per-gallon increase in jet fuel prices could mean rates would rise by as much as $25 each way. An increase of $2 per gallon, the report adds, could mean rates increase by as much as $50 each way (or $100 per round trip).

Airlines have made no secret of their plan to pass on as much of those costs as consumers can bear.

“I would only anticipate that airlines will heavily discount their airfares if the economy falls into recession and there is a sharp decline in demand for air travel,” Tan said.

So far this has not happened: airlines have had no problems filling seats on their planes.

In fact, several of the largest U.S. airlines had announced record bookings for early 2026. More recently, airlines have begun cutting flights on slower travel days to save fuel and money, eliminating flights that, in some cases, might have had the cheapest seats.

TPG’s tips for saving on air travel in 2026

With higher rates expected for the foreseeable future, here are some steps you can take to try to position yourself for the best deals.

Broaden your search

If you can’t find a suitable fare this summer, try to cast your net further while searching for flights.

The more open you are to alternative travel dates, alternative destinations, and different airlines or airports, the more likely you are to find lower fares.

Tools like Google Flights can help you make price comparisons between a variety of destinations, airlines and dates. TPG staff typically use award search tools to find the best points prices.

Book now, change later

Book a rate now that you can change later if the price drops. As long as you don’t book basic economy, most major US airlines allow free ticket changes after booking.

And remember, you can almost always cancel award tickets on U.S. airlines without losing miles or cash.

Flight repricing: What you need to know about canceling trips when you find a cheaper fare

Choose the cheapest day of the week to fly

Not all days are the same when it comes to plane tickets.

According to Points Path, these are the cheapest days of the week to fly this summer:

Based on Points Path data from summer 2026 economy fares.

Plan your summer getaway for August

As in recent summers, there is also a cheaper month to fly in summer 2026: August.

According to Points Path data, coach fares in August are approximately 14% cheaper than in July for domestic flights.

International fares, which peak in June, are about 13% cheaper in August.

Related: Best time to book flights with the cheapest airfare in 2026

How to save on bags

This brings us to the highest fees for checked baggage, which are quickly becoming a reality throughout the American airline industry.

Be sure to pay for your luggage in advance at least 24 hours before your flight, as many major airlines charge higher last-minute fees for checked luggage.

Additionally, consider a Airline credit card that has free baggage benefits. for you and your travel companions. In many cases, a family traveling together could more than offset the card’s annual fee with just one trip.

Beyond that, there is always the option of carrying just a carry-on bag. Just remember that the contents of your bag must meet the Transportation Security Administration 3-1-1 Liquid Rules.

Could airfares eventually fall?

A overnight drop in oil prices It could be an initial step in the right direction, although it’s not at all clear at this point whether that will stick.

Beyond that, it appears that only weakening travel demand could drive fares down.

It should be noted that consumer confidence fell sharply in March, according to the latest monthly report from the University of Michigan. survey. This came as drivers began to confront skyrocketing gasoline prices, which have surpassed $4 per gallon nationwide, according to AAA, and are up nearly 40% since the start of the US-Israel invasion of Iran.

Elsewhere, a TPG survey conducted with YouGov found that a growing number of travelers are reconsidering your travel plans.

Speaking to reporters late last month, United CEO Scott Kirby said the airline had not yet seen customers stop booking travel, but admitted it could happen if prices continue to rise.

“I think it’s totally plausible,” Kirby said, “that higher oil prices will have an impact on the economy and that will feed through to lower demand.”