It’s been a stressful few days for travelers with upcoming trips to Europe, including those planning to make the transatlantic trip for the upcoming summer travel season.
Concerns about a growing shortage of jet fuel on the continent have raised fears about possible flight cancellations if things do not improve.
This week, European Union leaders said that, for now, there is no immediate cause for alarm and that airports still see “no evidence of real shortages.”
“However, we must be prepared,” Apostolos Tzitzikostas, EU commissioner for sustainable transport and tourism, said at a news conference on Tuesday.
Travelers should be too.
Which airports could be affected by jet fuel shortages in Europe?
Fears about airports running out of jet fuel spiked earlier this month, when the head of the International Energy Agency warned that Europe had “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel.
Those concerns, of course, arose in the midst of a global oil crisis triggered by the conflict in the Middle East, the same oil crisis that has driven up gas prices and caused major increases in airfares around the world.
So far, we have not seen mass flight cancellations related to jet fuel shortages in Europe.
TPG spoke to experts who predicted that flight cuts (if they occur) would likely start at smaller airports in the region rather than major international hubs like Heathrow Airport (LHR) or Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG).
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“My bet is that fuel shortages would start at secondary and tertiary airports that don’t have fuel farms, while major hubs would be isolated for a little longer,” said Mike Stengel, director of aerospace consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory.
For that reason, I would be less worried about that transoceanic flight on a large twin-aisle airliner than I would be about that short-haul flight from one off-the-beaten-path European city to another.
Case in point: I just booked a trip to Europe in June. My concern about the Aer Lingus flight across the Atlantic from Washington, DC to Dublin is low. I’ll be keeping an eye out for the short drive from Split, Croatia to Copenhagen.
Tips for navigating European travel
If you’re planning to “hop” around Europe in the coming months, I’d add some buffer time to your itinerary and keep an eye out for backup flight options. Or you can choose to take the train.
Also, consider booking flexible (non-prepaid) hotel stays to avoid losing your deposit if your itinerary goes off course, although you’ll still need to keep an eye out for rate bookings if you cancel at the last minute. You can usually also comply with the more flexible rules by making your reservations with points.
Backup plans on the go
If the global oil deficit does not improve soon, EU leaders said they would plan to tap into the region’s emergency jet fuel reserves.
Tzitzikostas He said the EU was already working to secure an “alternative jet fuel supply” for Europe, including from the US.
“Airlines may also have some tools at their disposal, such as tanking fuel, where they would carry more fuel than needed for a given flight, so they can transport it to their hubs in an effort to alleviate supply constraints,” Stengel told TPG. Although he was also quick to point out: “It is a fluid situation and we will have to see how things develop in the coming days and weeks.”
Have flight cancellations started in Europe?
Airlines have already started cutting flights, to be sure. But those cancellations have been largely linked to the very high price of jet fuel.
In particular, the Lufthansa Group announced more than 20,000 cancellations between now and October at its key hubs in Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Vienna, Brussels and Rome.
That included the closure of its subsidiary CityLine, since TPG previously reported. Lufthansa Group is the parent company of a number of European airline brands, including Lufthansa, Swiss, Brussels Airlines, Austrian Airlines and ITA.
Those cuts to “unprofitable routes” were primarily due to financial issues, although the company noted that those cancellations would save 40,000 metric tons (about 10.5 million gallons) of jet fuel.
Cancellations through May 31 have already been announced, with the rest to be revealed later this month.
In a nutshell
Unfortunately, we may see more flights affected if the oil supply chain bottleneck is not eased soon.
Can read more of our tips on how to navigate European travel during this crisis hereincluding our thoughts on passenger rights and travel insurance.
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