The federal government reopened its doors Wednesday night, ending a six-week stalemate in Washington.
Now, the race is on to get air travel back on track, with just over a week left until the unofficial start of the Thanksgiving Travel Rush – and the stakes are high.
Airlines expect to carry a record 31 million passengers between November 21 and December 1. It’s also very possible that the Sunday after Turkey Day will break the record for the busiest day at U.S. airports.
but after tens of thousands of flight cancellations and delays Over the past week, the key question remains: Will holiday travel go smoothly or will travelers suffer a hangover from airport closures?
“It’s not a light switch,” warned former airline pilot Shye Gilad, a professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business. “I still think it will be a more challenging travel season than normal.”
Still, with flight cancellations and delays on the decline and critical aviation workers set to receive their payments, there is new optimism that the worst disruptions to air travel may be behind us.
“The government reopening will allow U.S. airlines to restore operations ahead of the busy Thanksgiving holiday,” a trade group for the largest airlines said in a statement late Wednesday.
What it will take to get air travel back on track
A few key factors will determine how quickly air travel returns to normal.
FAA flight limitations
For starters, the Federal Aviation Administration has yet to decide when to end mandatory flight restrictions at dozens of the country’s busiest airports.
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As of Wednesday, airlines had yet to cancel 6% of flights at 40 major hubs. That restriction will remain in effect Thursday, leading to hundreds of flight cancellations.
However, in an encouraging sign late Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Transportation said no expand those restrictions. The FAA had previously planned to increase cancellations to 8% of departures on Thursday and to 10% starting Friday.
Now, the required cuts will remain at 6% of flights.
Those limitations were intended to ease the burden on air traffic controllers, who were left out of work in large numbers last weekend after weeks without pay.
Staffing of air traffic controllers
How soon can airlines get back to a full schedule? “It depends on drivers coming back,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said this week.
Things seem to be going in the right direction. On both Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, the FAA reported only a small handful of “personnel triggers” at air traffic control facilities. On Saturday there were 81, according to the US Department of Transportation.
Cancellations and delays are already decreasing
It’s no coincidence that the number of flight delays and cancellations decreased for the third day in a row on Wednesday, FlightAware showed.
That improvement came when controllers learned they would receive their paychecks within 48 hours of the government reopening, something aviation industry leaders saw as a key step in getting staff (and flights) back up and running.
How will airlines recover?
Much of the burden now falls on airlines to recover after airlines had to make radical and sudden flight reductions last week, upsetting carefully crafted departure schedules amid the chaos of the shutdown.
A key factor for Thanksgiving: “When will airlines be able to separate their schedules to restore connectivity?” said Michael McCormick, an air traffic control expert at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
“If the shutdown ends this week,” McCormick had predicted, “the airlines will most likely be able to restore connectivity before the Thanksgiving push.”
The airlines were optimistic.
“I think it will be as close to normal as possible between Friday and Saturday,” said Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian. saying Wednesdays on CNBC.
What passengers should expect
In the next few days, I expect you will start to see airlines closing their doors. flexible travel exemptions They implemented during the closure, giving travelers more freedom to change their tickets or cancel them and get a refund.
The length of those lenient policies will likely depend on how long FAA flight restrictions remain in effect.
As for travelers with Thanksgiving trips booked, let’s go over some other quick tips:
Able to change? Fly in the morning
If your ticket allows changes and has some flexibility, my goal would be to fly first thing in the morning if possible. No matter the time of year, we tend to see travel disruptions increase as the day progresses.
Get to know your mobile app inside and out
Start familiarizing yourself with your airline’s mobile app now so you’re prepared to take quick action and rebook if a problem arises.
This is key to getting a seat on another flight when delays and cancellations arise.
Read more: Flight canceled or delayed? Here’s what to do next
What travel days will be busiest?
If you’re hoping to beat the crowds, returning home after Thanksgiving a little early (either Black Friday or Saturday, Nov. 29) might be your best bet.
Airlines expect Sunday, November 30 and Monday, December 1 to be the two busiest days of this holiday season.
Note that the Sunday after Thanksgiving last year was (at the time) Busiest day ever recorded at US airports.
Plan for TSA lines
If you are If you’re traveling on those days, you’ll probably want to take this into account when planning how early you’ll arrive at the airport.
The good news: Once the government is fully open again, you should be able to use the MyTSA app to check expected and real-time security wait times. The app was unreliable during the shutdown, but should be working again come the holidays.
TSA PreCheck and Contactless ID
if you are a TSA Precheck (either Global Entry) member, make sure your Known traveler number is attached to your reservation, so TSA PreCheck will appear on your boarding pass.
Read more: What to do if a boarding pass is not marked as TSA PreCheck
And if you fly from an airport that offers the new TSA PreCheck contactless identification program, opt for that accelerated program through your airline profile.
Keep the lines running smoothly!
Of course, you’ll also want to do your part to keep the lines moving quickly by packing with the TSA 3-1-1 Liquid Rules in mind. The good news? This will be the first holiday season in which no travelers will have to travel. take off your shoes at checkpoints.
Best Travel Tip for 2025 Holidays
And finally, after a chaotic and stressful few weeks for all airport employees, Gilad suggested having some grace for airline, security and airport workers as one of his top tips for the 2025 holidays.
“There are things you can do to reduce your risk. Fly early, look for longer connection times. But also, a lot of that also depends on your attitude. Be nice to these people,” Gilad said, offering his thoughts on how travelers might want to approach this particular Thanksgiving travel window.
“If I’m going to try this,” he said, “I should expect things to be challenging and I should think about how I can help.”
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