The airlines are closely observing any signal of changing travel patterns between the United States and Canada after the threat of President Donald Trump of pronounced tariffs on Canadian goods caused outrage among the inhabitants of the Gran Norte Blanco.
“Now is also time to choose Canada,” said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a ADDRESS To the nation on February 2. “It could mean changing your summer holiday plans to stay here in Canada.”
While Trump’s tariffs were canceled at the eleventh hour, they are only waiting for 30 days. That leaves the door open to get more interruptions on the Trips of US-Canada.
That threat has sent shock waves through the travel industry. The United States Travel Association warned That a 10% drop in Canadian visitors could lead to up to $ 2.1 billion in lost expenses in American companies.
“There is definitely softness in the last two weeks,” said Frank Satusky, network director at Porter Airlines, at the Routes Americas conference in Nassau, Bahamas, last week. “There is a lot of frustration in Canada.”
Air Canada’s Vice President of Planning and Programming, Alexandre Lefèvre, described the ferry market as “unstable”, adding that the airline does not see any “immediate slowdown” in the demand for travel.
Neither Air Canada nor Porter have immediate plans to withdraw their US schedule. The first has already presented a new service to the Jacksonville International Airport (Jax) this year and The latter at Laguardia airport in New York (LGA).
However, any extended travel demand weakness could be challenging for airlines.
Air Canada is the largest airline in the market, and the most exposed to fluctuations in travel demand, with a participation of almost 43% of the 9.3 million seats between the United States and Canada in the first quarter, the data Programming of the Cirium aviation analysis firm. Air Canada’s participation increases to 54% when it includes a joint business partner United Airlines; The two airlines coordinate the schedules and rates on the transmission routes.
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Westjet is the second largest in the market with a 17% participation in the seats, and Porter is fourth with a 9% share.
A Westjet representative in routes declined to comment.
To complicate the situation is the weak Canadian dollar in relation to the US currency. The decrease inflates the cost of a trip for anyone who exchanges the Canadian currency.
“The weak Canadian dollar is affecting the demand,” Lefèvre said. The airline has made some “programming reductions in the margins” as a result of the monetary situation.
To compensate for the currency challenge, the airlines can sell more seats in the US. The proposal is more challenging for Canadian airlines that mainly serve their local market.
Air Canada, however, has an advantage to increase US sales. First, its United partner manages sales in the country, which gives Air Canada access to a broad and deep group of travelers, both leisure and corporate. Second, the airline carries a significant number of Americans on its flights through the border and to Europe and Asia through connections in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver, British Columbia.
Air trips that begin in a country, implies a flight connection or a stop in another country and ends in a third country is called a “sixth freedom” trip.
Air Canada is already the largest foreign airline in the US Add up to 15 most American cities to your map in the coming years. This expansion is promoted by the sixth freedom strategy of the airline.
“We need to offer more connectivity,” said Lefèvre. “We need to offer more points on the map.”
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